Sunday, July 08, 2007

Don't Worry... They'll Run Out Soon

After looking at some stats:

I have good news: all the "coalition" forces have to do in Iraq is... nothing! Just sit back and wait. Even though the stakes are high, and obviously, there are some "insurgents" in Iraq that are willing to strap explosive devices to themselves (to what end, who knows), there could only be so many that will be willing to do this.

Therefore, they will run out of people. And soon.

I mean, even in a society as axiomatic and organised as Imperial Japan was during WWII, they were only able to come up with so many kamikazes. They had, at most liberal estimate, 2-4000 kamikazes available. And they started to run out in the last year of the war. This from a population of many millions.

The "insurgents" in Iraq & Afghanistan are supposedly from at least four distinct and competing groups: Sunni, Shia, Taliban and/or Al Qaeda... plus in Afghanistan, we have dozens of local warlords, each staking their claims.

One thing is for sure, there aren't many of these people. They are small by military standards; surrounding themselves with only their trusted best and few. They run small, one-time guerrilla operations against the "coalition" forces. The never amass for battle as an organised force (which is strange... this is how one defeats one's enemy in an insurgency/guerrilla war. It was these large-scale offensives which brought the US to its knees in Vietnam). If there were more than just a few scattered thousands of each, they would amass and both take control of territory and launch effective strikes against the "coalition forces."

But they do not.

Instead, they send their best troops, one after the other, to blow themselves up. They send an incredible (in the truest sense of the word) amount of their soldiers to their useless deaths. By my count, there have been almost one thousand five hundred of these "suicide bombings" in Iraq and Afghanistan since 2003. And this is simply a quick overview. The real number is probably far higher.

That is over 30 individuals blowing themselves up every month for four years! Has a single suicide bombing ever produced any result other than escalation of troop presence and greater repression and cruelty? Are we to believe that these crafty devils - the same ones who planned for and defeated the mighty US Air Force on 911 - cannot come up with anything more effective than running screaming into the streets to blow themselves up? Knowing that their deaths will obviously be completely in vain?

What, do you think, is a fair percentage to assign to the success of recruiting suicide bombers? Do you think that 1 in 10, 1 in 100, 1 in 1000 would agree to horribly shred themselves to death, in public, leaving their loved ones and family to fend for themselves?
I would tend to think that only the very hardest-core of the hardcore would even entertain this as an option. I would pick 1 in 1000. Of course, the "coalition" leaders would like to pick 1 in 10. Let's meet in the middle and pick 1 in 100 "insurgents" being talked into becoming screaming, fanatical suicide bombers.

It's simple math: 1500 x 100 = 150,000 insurgents. Since the suicide bombing don't seem to be anywhere near being over, there must be many more than the 1500 who have already blown themselves up. If there are that many again, we're looking at 300,000 insurgents.

I don't care how angry, how incensed, how outraged, a people can get: these people are humans. Humans are scared to die. Under some circumstances, people can be ideologically motivated enough to get over these fears, but not without hope to motivate. Suicide bombing will go down in history as the least effective war strategy in history!

If we take the far more reasonable number of 1 in 1000 people being talked into becoming suicide bombers, we end up with the mind-numbing figures of 1,500,000 - 3,000,000 insurgents. This is pure fantasy, of course. This is the population of several Iraqi cities put together. We can see from "news" images that, obviously, most Iraqis are trying to get on with life the best they can (bless their souls) and can't possibly be signing up en masse for "insurgency."

The "insurgents" have managed, through word-of-mouth and impromptu planning, since the start of the insurgency, to sign up 1500 suicide bombers - almost as many as the kamikazes in WWII. This is truly impressive. Imperial Japan had complete control of its home territory throughout the war, retaining airtight control over all media and propaganda, with recruiters and offices all over the country and a perfectly structured and organised military leadership with which to control their personnel. They were able to make 2000, perhaps 4000 kamikaze pilots from a huge standing army.
"Insurgents" in Iraq have managed to make 1500 attacks (so, 1500 suicide bombers) to date. There must be that many again ready to go, or their strategy would have changed by now. Problem is: they're going to run out of people. Obviously there aren't 3 million insurgents. There aren't even the 150,000 that the low-end of the math dictates!

So don't worry, "coalition forces," the end is in sight. The enemy is obviously intent on blowing itself to kingdom come - for nothing.

Sit back, have a smoke and don't worry, they'll run out soon.

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